Trading insights on share trading, forex trading, cfd trading and options trading. Powerful insights from our Wealth Advisers at PhillipCapital Australia.
If Santa Claus is coming to the market this year we will know this week, as this is make or break week. This week also sees a number of other important events taking place. The first being the FED and the long expected first interest rate rise in years (16th at 2.00pm EST in the US) followed by option expiry for the local index (XJO) and stocks, both on the same day, this Thursday 17th. We have XJO expiry with the opening match and then stock expiry with the closing match, so expect to see some volatility on the back of this, especially since it follows the FED decision only hours before. Then the US has its own Triple Witching expiry on Friday and it’s one of the biggest for the year. For more on this please find attached this week’s Market Commentary looking at the Australian and US markets.
There are important lessons from last week. Like one day doesn’t make a trend. Irrespective of how compelling a day looks we will always need more than one day to confirm a trend. Being aware of where resistance is and what the cycles are doing are essential in helping to position oneself on the correct side of the market. This last week was a very good example of this being the case..
It’s just 26 days to Christmas and counting. Each year I say how it feels as if Christmas comes around faster and faster and maybe that’s because I am getting older or life is just moving faster? Whatever the reason I think we are all in the same boat. The $64,000 question is will we have a Santa Claus rally and if so when, if it hasn’t already started? Markets take on a different character approaching, during and after the holidays and we should look to use this to our advantage
There is a strong seasonal pattern surrounding this holiday in the US. The seasonal pattern is that the markets generally rallies the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and, the shorten trading session of, the Friday following.
Read more about Dow Jones Thanksgiving Seasonality - What Can You Expect
Looking at the 33 years in question, we have 2 years which went sideways (1987 & 2008), another 3 years which went down (1990, 2007 & 2011), while the other 28 years went up. This provides us with an 84.8% chance that 2015 will see the market ...
Friday the 13th is known to be an unlucky day and if you were long the market then it was an unlucky day. This ties in with what the markets did over the last week, with the US markets playing catch up (down) with our local market. BHP was a stand out last week, so I have included it in this week’s market commentary along with why, at times, markets move stocks, as compared to stocks moving markets.
Read more about Australian Share Market Today - XJO Commentary 16 Nov 15
Asset Allocation Strategies: How to Use ETFs to Maximise Diversification, Reduce Risk and Increase Yield.
It’s all in the execution. Last week I touched fairly briefly on developing a Macro view and what you need to be able to build a globally diversified portfolio. This week, I’ll explain more about what products we use to execute our view and preview a snap shot of how a globally diversified portfolio looks.
The markets have been at the “Cross Roads” recently and two different paths have been taken. The US markets took one path and moved up over the last week however the XJO took the other path and moved down. Will these paths cross once more before the year is out, and if so, will it be one or both coming to meet the other?
Interview with Michael Heffernan, PhillipCapital on Sky Business News, 5 Nov 2015. Heffernan says the market has been miserable today much like Melbourne's weather. He says our market is good value and our economy is okay, but despite all that we are watching what is happening in the US...
Read more about Australian Share Market Today - CSL Shares & Brambles Shares
Australian Market (XJO) Daily – 5239.4 – 30.10.15. Monday was an up day, reaching just 10 points higher than Friday before closing just below the open and forming a Doji. Doji’s are a sign of indecision and potential reversals (that is if they are in the correct position in a trend, such as at the end of it). This was confirmed on Tuesday, which was a down day.
Read more about ASX XJO Commentary 02-11-2015 - Australian Share Market News